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[+] Team Summaries

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Games to Watch

(Complete Week 1 Picks Here)
TEAM1 (Record) |Spread| [ATS] @ Team2 (Record) [ATS]

Ohio State (4-1) |-2.5| [-12.9] @ Wisconsin (3-1) [+1.0]
Why we care: Big Ten title is still up for grabs. More importantly, we get are first look at Terrelle Pryor as the number 1.
What to watch for: How much of the offense has Pryor absorbed and how healthy is Beanie Wells. Ohio State already has one of the more efficient run offenses in the country-and it should only get better. But can Pryor stretch the field? Wisconsin is good enough up front that they will stop you unless you pull back and throw it over their heads every once in a while.

Pick: Ohio State 19, Wisconsin 9

Auburn (4-1) |-4| [-2.4] @ Vanderbilt (4-0) [+15.9]

Why we care: Vandy just might win this one, and they might win because they might be the better team-that is reason enough for me.
What to watch for: Who screws up first. Don't expect this to be a game of offensive fireworks. These two teams couldn't move the ball consistently against their own scout teams. Whoever gets to 14 first wins.

Misc: Remember how the SEC East was supposed to be dominant this year? Now their last remaining shimmer of hope is the Commodores?

Pick: Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 14
Connecticut (5-0) |-1| [+5.0] @ North Carolina (3-1) [+14.0]

Why we care: UNC is probably an up and coming program under Butch Davis and has looked competitive in its 4 outings, while UConn looks to start 6-0.

What to watch for: QB play. Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks. This turn of events favors UConn who has the top rusher in the country in Donald Brown-who was a week one player that impressed. But North Carolina has looked like the more explosive team and has played the tougher schedule.

Pick: North Carolina 32, UConn 19

Thursday, October 2, 2008

ATS Rankings

(Click the image on the right to see a larger version; click here for complete week 5 Matrix picks).

I like to think of rankings against the spread as which team is the most better (or worser) than everyone thunk'em to be. You'll find teams like BYU and Alabama at the top of the list and no surprise. BYU covered by 51 points against UCLA-that's more than Clemson has covered total since the invention of football.

But more important is the name at the bottom of the list. Washington State is historically worser than anyone thought they were going to be-and no one outside of Pulman thought they were going to be worth snot. Washington State just might be the most bad worser team in the history of college football.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Matrix Picks

Here are the Matrix picks for this weekend. Some interesting picks: Kansas State over Texas Tech-the Matrix sees Kansas State out-dueling the Red Raiders, throwing for over 8 yards a pass while holding Tech to under 6. Illinois over Michigan-no big surprise to me. Vandy over Auburn-Vandy will hold Auburn to under 3.5 yards per play and score enough points to pull out the tough victory. (Click the image to see a larger version.)

Matrix Rankings

Here are the first Matrix rankings of this season. These are the performance rankings only. That means it does not give special preference to winning and losing, only the margin of victory (which is positive if the team wins and negative if it loses).
(Click here for all D1A teams)
Another thing to keep in mind is that these rankings are based on very little data. In science, trying to make conclusions from 4 or 5 data points is a joke, but this is entertainment so I tried it anyway. It's amazing to think that the Matrix is suggesting that Texas is going undernoticed, but if you look at their resume this season, it is very impressive.