tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post528634117767144935..comments2024-11-04T06:08:38.606-05:00Comments on College Football by the Numbers: Reverse engineering Vegas and the NFLAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-26896883509393587642012-09-07T08:36:41.464-04:002012-09-07T08:36:41.464-04:00One way of looking at it is that the o/u money lin...One way of looking at it is that the o/u money lines compensate for the rounding of the expected win total to the bet-able win total. The expected win total might be 10.9, but 11 is reported with higher odds on the under, therefore implying a value closer to 10.9. <br /><br />My model did not use money lines, so it assumed the bet-able win totals were the expected win totals. If, for example, theAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-36065896891339972312012-09-07T05:07:48.706-04:002012-09-07T05:07:48.706-04:00Not sure what you mean by number 2? The money lin...Not sure what you mean by number 2? The money lines simply adjust the true implied o/u numbers. For there to be a correlation between your projections and the direction of the money lines would be fully expected. Or am I not understanding what you are saying?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-68953298679497835952012-09-05T06:51:47.245-04:002012-09-05T06:51:47.245-04:00That would make sense if they were giving odds for...That would make sense if they were giving odds for each game. Then a 10 percent overround would produce 25 extra wins. But here the vig comes from the o/u money lines. You don't bet on win totals, you bet on the probability of it being over or under an arbitrary line. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-65031345319068870212012-09-04T22:02:20.899-04:002012-09-04T22:02:20.899-04:00I think the win totals add up to 262 because of th...I think the win totals add up to 262 because of the vig -- vegas makes it's money off the fact that their win odds add up to over 100%. That's why normal games -110 vs -110 (or 52.3% to 52.3% which is over 100%).Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-89337085889023505022012-09-04T09:41:25.292-04:002012-09-04T09:41:25.292-04:00That's a fair point. Had this been more than a...That's a fair point. Had this been more than a demonstration exercise I definitely would have needed to account for money lines - for example, if you were to try and use this method to arbitrage win total-based playoff odds against quoted playoff odds. <br /><br />I would have needed to set the simulation to match probabilities above and below the win totals instead of the win totals Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09862656571382266427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-905059660302177205.post-24118607442047793352012-09-04T04:10:27.594-04:002012-09-04T04:10:27.594-04:00Interesting, but you really need to factor in the ...Interesting, but you really need to factor in the money line odds to get at the true implied win totals. E.g., Ari is under 7 -210, which is closer to a 6.5 implied win total than 7.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com