Statistical Review: Duke #75

Duke won six of their first eight games. They lost their last five games, and in losing those games they allowed 246 points. If one of those five opponents had managed a touchdown instead of a field goal on one possession, Duke would have allowed 50 points per game over a five game stretch. That's the kind of thing you right epic poems about.

Did Duke collapse? The short answer is no. Their performance might have dropped a little, but the real reason for the collapse is that they replaced Wake Forest for Clemson. And I don't just mean the schedule got harder. If 246 is remarkable, so is 15.5; Duke allowed 15.5 yards per completion. They allowed plays of 25 or more yards on 7% of plays.

What did the 2012 variants of Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and Cincinnati all have in common? They were all among Duke's final five opponents and they are all exceptionally explosive teams. The adjusted metrics that account for schedule have Duke as the country's worst team at preventing explosive plays, and they played a stretch of explosive offenses that was second to none. Matching Duke and Cincinnati in a bowl game must have been someone's sick joke.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Nevada #76

Nevada lost six games. They lost three by one point and another by six. That's not to say Nevada was better than we thought; they lost that claim by allowing no fewer than 21 points in every game this season despite facing one of the nation's softest schedule. No, Nevada wasn't any better than we thought, but they're record could have been better.

How does a team go about winning or losing a lot of close games? They key is to have a big gap between the offensive and defensive units. In the case of Nevada, the offense is legitimately good while the defense is legitimately awful. They score easily against their mediocre opposition and their mediocre opposition scores easily against them. It is more likely that each scored will be matched on the next possession, so games tend to be close. Connecticut, at the other end, had 8 of 12 games decided by 7 points or less.

The Nevada offense was effective, but this was definitely not Colin Kaepernick's Nevada offense; their one shortcoming was a lack of explosiveness. In part, this lack of explosiveness is because they ran the ball 62% of the time - running plays are less likely to be explosive - but they averaged a pedestrian 11.7 yards per pass completion. They made up for this lack of explosiveness by maintaining drives. Nevada averaged 6.4 plays per possession, behind only Army and Marshall. They were tackled for a loss on just over 1 in 10 run plays and 5.2 yards per carry. They converted 40% of their possessions into touchdowns, and may have been even better if not for a below average turnover rate (13.3% of possessions) and a poor penalty rate (63 yards per game). 

On defense, they were fairly atrocious across the board.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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Statistical Review: Western Kentucky #77

Western Kentucky 2012 is the reason I use two metrics to measure strength of schedule. They played one team in the top 25, two in the top 50, and four in the bottom 25 plus Austin Peay. But that one team in the top 25 was Alabama. Fewer teams had an easier road to six regular season wins - six by my count - but almost 100 teams had a better chance of going undefeated based on schedule alone.

They also demonstrated the value of focusing on points per possession instead of points per game. With only 11.8 possessions per game, Western Kentucky was in the bottom 10 nationally. As a result, they scored only 28.2 points per game (70th nationally) but scored 2.38 points per possession (46th best).

In all other ways, the Hilltoppers violated my best rules of thumb. For example, on defense they had a high TFL and sack rate and were average at preventing explosive plays, yet they were poor on 3rd down. Usually, the ability to get in the backfield while also preventing explosive plays adds up to good 3rd down defense.

On the other side, they allowed a high sack rate, they were not explosive, and yet 3rd down offense was a strength. Go figure.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Rice #78

The Rice defense is a mystery that demands attention. They were terrible in the red zone, terrible at preventing explosive plays, terrible at defending the run, and yet they allowed fewer points per game than 45 other teams. Thirty points per game is not good, but 4.9 yards per carry, 14.4 yards per reception, and 5.06 points per red zone possession, and an average tempo should add up to more. 1.8% fumble rate helps (opponents coughed up the ball once every 55 plays, which is more than most). More important, Rice allowed 56.3% completions, which was critical in holding opponents to 4.8 plays per possession. In short, Rice kept scoring down by forcing turnovers on 15% of possessions (despite allowing few plays - or turnover opportunities - per possession) and by allowing field goals on only 4.4% of possessions.

On offense, Rice was plain. They ran the ball 61% of the time, rarely broke long plays, and kicked a lot of field goals. If they had converted field goals into touchdowns they would have been top 15 in points per game, but instead the Owls were 41st.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Connecticut #79

Connecticut was fairly hopeless with the football. They averaged less than 18 points per game and got 30% of those from the special teams.

The defense was another story. Connecticut averaged only 2.5 yards per rush attempt but allowed only 2.7, and they held opponents under 100 yards rushing per game. The pass defense was less stout but still capable. The only real weakness was a painful inability to force turnvovers - only 7.2 per 100 possessions.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.