Lindy's Five Essential Websites (Non-Major Media) for 2013
[+] Team Summaries

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

New Feature: Pick All (Beta)

The new pick all feature lets you see the predicted score for every game this season between two FBS opponents, past and future. In each case, the pick is what the model would anticipate if the two teams played tomorrow.

For now, pick all is under Picks: Pick All. To see the picks for a specific team, type the team name in the green box. The typed name must match the listed name exactly, so if you're not sure how a team is listed, leave the green box empty and scroll down to find the team. You can also filter by date using the box labelled "date". Dates are formatted as single numbers, month and then day, so August 11 is 811 and November 7 if 1107.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Top offensive performances of the week

EP3 stands for Effective Points per Possession. It is a measure of how many points a team scores per possession while also allowing a point value for field position. The rankings here adjust EP3 for the strength of the opposing defense.


Sunday, November 17, 2013

Picks

The model likes Baylor by two TDs over Oklahoma State, LSU by 5 over Texas A&M, and Missouri by the same over Ole Miss. And it likes Florida State by 74.2 over Idaho; it could happen.


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The Big 12 quarterback famine

The SEC has four teams in the top 10 in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency (EP3+), and five in the top 11 (Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama, and Georgia; South Carolina is 11th). Even in raw offensive efficiency (EP3), the SEC has three of the top 9.

The Big 12, on the other hand, has Baylor at #1 overall, but then the second best comes in at 25th nationally (Kansas State), followed by Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas at 31, 33, and 34 respectively. Looking only at points per possession, there are 7 SEC teams ahead of the 2nd most prolific Big 12 offense, and three Big 12 defenses rank among the top 20 in defensive efficiency compared to four from the SEC.

What happened to Big 12 offenses? Half of the answer seems to be that Big 12 defenses have improved. The second part of the answer is behind center. After Bryce Petty, who's currently holding off Manziel for the top spot nationally in EPA+ (opponent-adjusted expected points added), we have a run of six SEC quarterbacks before we get to the next Big 12 quarterback. And that quarterback, Davis Webb, like Petty is a first year starter.


Sunday, November 10, 2013

Best offensives performances of the week

EP3 stands for Effective Points per Possession. It is a measure of how many points a team scores per possession while also allowing a point value for field position. The rankings here adjust EP3 for the strength of the opposing defense.