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Thursday, July 10, 2008

The Respect-O-Meter

Do you feel like your team got the shaft in 2007? That the experts failed to notice your crowning achievement-five degrees of victory from the national championship (e.g. my team beat App State who beat Michigan who beat Florida who beat Kentucky who beat LSU)? I introduce for your viewing pleasure the crowning statistical achievement of 2008-the Respect-O-Meter!

The Respect-O-Meter is based on the simple idea that the line on games in Vegas is a decent representation of the public's perception of a team. I use a GLM to rate teams based both on their actual performance and on their expected performance based on public perceptions. The difference represents the degree to which your team was the victim of "player-hating".

I've also included a measure of the change in respect a team experienced over the course of the season (Change-O-Meter).

Here's how it works-a negative number means the team did not get the respect it deserved. The most disrespected teams, interestingly enough, were Kansas and Missouri. Among the most overrated teams were Hawaii and Louisville, and handful of Big 10 teams, and the Hurricanes. Kansas and South Florida saw the biggest increase in respect over the course of the season. And the biggest losers? Nebraska and Louisville.

(Click image to see a legible version)

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