Lindy's Five Essential Websites (Non-Major Media) for 2013
[+] Team Summaries

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Picks

Pop Out

8 comments:

  1. I know all picks are basically 100% stats, but does your model take into account home field advantage, night game, THU/FRI games, etc?

    A great example is SCar @ LSU. All 7 of my inputs including yours have SCar winning but they're TERRIBLE on the road and are playing in one of the toughest places at night.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think I should start by saying that it is my philosophy to use only statistics that I have found to be statistically relevant. My edge comes from ignoring the standard explanations and using what I find in the data.

      I do include home field advantage based on venue (Death Valley is a tougher place to play than South Bend), distance (Hawaii has 2x the HFA of other teams), and conference affiliation. HFA typically ranges from 3-4 points in the continental US. -On a side note, only Hawaii (high HFA) and Navy (low HFA) are considerably different from everyone else. The other 122 teams are within a point and a half of one another. People often confuse good teams that attract big crowds for tough places to play.

      I do not include day of the week or time of day because I haven't found a consistent statistical effect (I also haven't found a consistent effect for time of year). I might not have enough data for time of day, but I have 100 years of data on day of the week and I have not found a meaningful pattern.

      As for South Carolina being terrible on the road: Are we talking about this season? As I see it, Vandy's tough and Shaw was losing body parts on the field, and Kentucky mixed some things up and SC made adjustments at half.

      Even after losing last week, I still think LSU is clearly the most overrated team in the country. There is nothing elite about that team. They can win this game if they get a few breaks, but SC is undoubtedly the better team.

      Delete
  2. Not to blow smoke, but this is one of the best sites on the Web. I look forward to your analysis each week. Thanks!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.

    Poppriceguide.com
    Information

    ReplyDelete
  4. There is noticeably a bundle to know about this. I assume you made certain nice points in features also.

    Visit Web
    Gapyear.com
    Information

    ReplyDelete
  5. There are some interesting points in time in this article but I don’t know if I see all of them center to heart. There is some validity but I will take hold opinion until I look into it further. Good article, thanks and we want more! Added to FeedBurner as well

    Dzone.com
    Information
    Click Here
    Visit Web

    ReplyDelete