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Tuesday, July 17, 2007


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  1. I know all picks are basically 100% stats, but does your model take into account home field advantage, night game, THU/FRI games, etc?

    A great example is SCar @ LSU. All 7 of my inputs including yours have SCar winning but they're TERRIBLE on the road and are playing in one of the toughest places at night.

    1. I think I should start by saying that it is my philosophy to use only statistics that I have found to be statistically relevant. My edge comes from ignoring the standard explanations and using what I find in the data.

      I do include home field advantage based on venue (Death Valley is a tougher place to play than South Bend), distance (Hawaii has 2x the HFA of other teams), and conference affiliation. HFA typically ranges from 3-4 points in the continental US. -On a side note, only Hawaii (high HFA) and Navy (low HFA) are considerably different from everyone else. The other 122 teams are within a point and a half of one another. People often confuse good teams that attract big crowds for tough places to play.

      I do not include day of the week or time of day because I haven't found a consistent statistical effect (I also haven't found a consistent effect for time of year). I might not have enough data for time of day, but I have 100 years of data on day of the week and I have not found a meaningful pattern.

      As for South Carolina being terrible on the road: Are we talking about this season? As I see it, Vandy's tough and Shaw was losing body parts on the field, and Kentucky mixed some things up and SC made adjustments at half.

      Even after losing last week, I still think LSU is clearly the most overrated team in the country. There is nothing elite about that team. They can win this game if they get a few breaks, but SC is undoubtedly the better team.

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