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Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Historic Rankings: 2003 - 2006

2006 Ratings
2005 Ratings
2004 Ratings
2003 Ratings

With the season beginning to wrap up, I decided it was time to start adding historic polls to the site. These polls use the same methodology that I have developed this season, but, due to a lack of data, I cannot (yet) do the potential, offensive and defensive ratings that I post for the current season. I have added a strength of schedule rating and a hybrid ranking (a slightly altered version of the combined rating). The Elo rating is the win/loss rating, but Elo just makes for a shorter name and pays homage to the fellow that developed the basic methodology that I have borrowed.

I have finished preparing results for 2003 to 2006. The results are similar to the BCS and AP final rankings. Initially, it looks like the Matrix gives less credence to bowl game outcomes than the human polls and more credit to mid-majors than the computer polls. The Matrix even had the audacity to rank Utah #1 in the performance poll for 2004 - I watched that team live several times and would have given them even odds against anyone in the country outside of the Coliseum. In fact, 3 teams were rated over 50 in the performance rating in the 4 year period - Texas 2005, Utah 2004 and USC 2004.

I have done my best to identify errors, but let me know if you find any. I am indebted to James Howell for making this data available.

Footnotes: I stumbled on this little chart - the final coach's ballot - while perusing through The Wizard of Odds. Obviously, coaches tried to sneak their team in the championship game. Beamer puts the Hokies at #2, with LSU at #1 (he couldn't put his team ahead of LSU after the beat down they gave them). And Richt put Georgia at #2 - I'd like to hear his explanation of how Georgia is more deserving than their conference champions (LSU).

But Bob Stoops wins the "I did my best to manipulate the polls and get my team in the championship game" award. First, he had the guts to put his two-loss Sooners at #1 - no surprise there. And Ohio State was #2 in the Stoops poll. Where did LSU fall? #6! No other coach ranked LSU lower. Georgia came in 8th, again among the lowest in the country. It looks to me like Stoops identified and dropped his toughest competition - to no avail.

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