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Friday, August 16, 2013

Statistical Review: Florida State #10

Florida State shut out two opponents and held five in single digits. Only two opponents topped 22, and both of those scored 37 points. One was Clemson. Clemson was 9th nationally in points/possession and 19th in possessions/game. The Tigers often scored a lot of points in 2012. The other was Florida. Florida was 75th in points per possession. They equaled or topped 37 three times - Florida State, Tennessee and South Carolina. I'm not really sure where this is going, but it's definitely weird.

Florida State scored 40 or more in seven games, 30 or more in 10 games, and 20 or more in 13. And they scored 16 and lost to NC State. Outside of having the odd distinction of having the lowest plays/possession allowed in college football, the NC State defense was not special . . . except on that day they were.

Florida State was a very good team. They were in the top 11 in points/possession on offense and defense; Alabama is the only other team that can say that. They allowed the fewest yards/possession. They were second in schedule-adjusted yards/rush. EJ Manuel was decent but not overwhelming (30th among quarterbacks in EPA+/pass), but I'm starting to suspect that may have had more to do with QB development than EJ Manuel himself. They did everything well . . . except one day they couldn't score and another day they couldn't keep the other team from scoring.

Florida State will need to break in a freshman quarterback but 1) they have the running game and defense to steamroll lesser opponents and 2) if 2012 taught us anything it's that we shouldn't underestimate the redshirt freshman. So the questions are 1) will Winston be able to keep up with Tajh Boyd on Oct. 19th, 2) will he be able to channel his inner Bridgewater and throw it around enough to beat Florida and 3) will the Seminoles be able to avoid whatever it was that happened against NC State.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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