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Friday, July 20, 2012

The Age Impact revisited


As I noted in an earlier post, the Age Impact is an attempt to improve on the returning starters concept. On top of the raw numbers of how many starters will be back with the team, the Age Impact also considers how productive those starters were and how much we can expect them to improve from year to year. Losing a quarterback hurts more than losing the #2 receiver, and freshman tend to improve more going into their sophomore season than juniors entering their senior campaign (the sophomore slump is about standard regression and nothing more). 

The Age Impact (AI) draws on those two concepts to predict variation in a team's total yards from year to year. For example, we can expect Wyoming's total yards to increase 15% from 2011. Syracuse, on the other hand, can expect a 9% decrease. Returning starters is one of a million variables that influence performance from season to season, but it does explain about 10% of season to season variation in total yards.

The last four columns are the percent of offensive production from each class. 

Team AI FR SO JR SR
1 Wyoming 15% 56% 14% 24% 6%
2 Marshall 14% 42% 39% 18% 1%
3 Indiana 14% 35% 56% 0% 9%
4 Oregon St. 13% 56% 7% 26% 11%
5 Rutgers 13% 43% 28% 24% 5%
6 Akron 12% 23% 59% 18% 0%
7 Louisville 12% 48% 17% 13% 21%
8 Memphis 11% 52% 13% 7% 29%
9 Texas 11% 43% 23% 23% 12%
10 Clemson 11% 26% 50% 24% 0%
11 Kansas 11% 28% 47% 14% 11%
12 Ohio St. 10% 45% 17% 14% 24%
13 Georgia 10% 28% 41% 26% 4%
14 Tennessee 9% 22% 53% 8% 17%
15 Ball St. 9% 16% 63% 5% 16%
16 Colorado St. 9% 18% 57% 7% 18%
17 UNLV 8% 20% 53% 4% 23%
18 Boston College 8% 6% 72% 15% 8%
19 South Carolina 8% 20% 47% 17% 16%
20 UAB 8% 16% 56% 7% 21%
21 Nebraska 7% 17% 46% 31% 5%
22 Virginia 7% 23% 40% 19% 18%
23 North Carolina 7% 24% 37% 17% 21%
24 UCF 7% 26% 31% 28% 15%
25 La.-Monroe 7% 4% 69% 21% 5%
26 Bowling Green 7% 18% 51% 1% 31%
27 New Mexico 6% 27% 21% 45% 6%
28 TCU 6% 9% 57% 26% 8%
29 Florida St. 6% 34% 9% 44% 12%
30 Tulane 6% 24% 28% 39% 9%
31 Iowa St. 6% 26% 25% 37% 12%
32 Washington 6% 16% 43% 25% 16%
33 Fresno St. 6% 6% 60% 25% 9%
34 Troy 6% 7% 55% 33% 5%
35 Illinois 5% 15% 49% 1% 36%
36 Army 5% 20% 27% 45% 8%
37 Missouri 5% 1% 65% 17% 17%
38 Alabama 4% 6% 51% 26% 17%
39 Connecticut 4% 33% 0% 46% 21%
40 Washington St. 4% 29% 16% 11% 44%
41 Auburn 4% 13% 31% 53% 3%
42 Central Mich. 3% 24% 12% 50% 14%
43 Mississippi 3% 19% 22% 40% 18%
44 USC 3% 22% 15% 53% 11%
45 BYU 3% 5% 49% 27% 19%
46 Wake Forest 3% 2% 54% 25% 19%
47 Maryland 3% 8% 47% 20% 26%
48 Kentucky 3% 24% 11% 50% 15%
49 LSU 3% 15% 33% 18% 35%
50 Ohio 2% 2% 56% 5% 37%
51 Miami (Ohio) 2% 13% 26% 50% 11%
52 Oregon 2% 23% 5% 62% 10%
53 Nevada 2% 29% 10% 9% 52%
54 San Diego St. 2% 3% 54% 5% 38%
55 Louisiana Tech 2% 27% 1% 53% 20%
56 Middle Tenn. St. 2% 3% 44% 32% 21%
57 North Texas 2% 7% 43% 15% 36%
58 West Virginia 1% 14% 18% 59% 10%
59 Vanderbilt 1% 13% 19% 52% 15%
60 Kansas St. 1% 6% 27% 63% 4%
61 Pittsburgh 1% 15% 11% 67% 7%
62 Penn St. 0% 1% 39% 41% 18%
63 Oklahoma 0% 5% 32% 46% 17%
64 Virginia Tech 0% 2% 39% 32% 26%
65 Notre Dame 0% 1% 41% 32% 26%
66 Iowa 0% 9% 22% 51% 19%
67 Utah St. 0% 19% 5% 51% 25%
68 La.-Lafayette 0% 13% 11% 61% 15%
69 Kent St. 0% 21% 2% 49% 29%
70 Toledo 0% 1% 39% 31% 28%
71 Hawaii 0% 12% 26% 13% 49%
72 South Fla. 0% 9% 13% 75% 2%
73 Rice 0% 5% 36% 21% 39%
74 UTEP 0% 16% 14% 35% 36%
75 Mississippi St. -1% 11% 26% 18% 46%
76 Eastern Mich. -1% 7% 22% 57% 15%
77 Northwestern -1% 10% 30% 5% 55%
78 Duke -1% 11% 14% 57% 19%
79 East Caro. -1% 14% 20% 12% 53%
80 Texas Tech -1% 11% 10% 67% 12%
81 Minnesota -1% 17% 3% 49% 31%
82 Miami (Fla.) -2% 5% 33% 16% 47%
83 Buffalo -2% 2% 40% 1% 57%
84 Michigan -2% 1% 26% 54% 18%
85 Utah -2% 11% 1% 84% 4%
86 Georgia Tech -2% 10% 10% 57% 23%
87 San Jose St. -2% 8% 25% 11% 56%
88 Fla. Atlantic -2% 13% 7% 43% 37%
89 Purdue -2% 7% 13% 60% 21%
90 Western Ky. -2% 13% 7% 46% 34%
91 New Mexico St. -3% 13% 11% 29% 48%
92 Florida -3% 12% 17% 9% 62%
93 Southern Miss. -3% 11% 15% 19% 55%
94 California -3% 1% 21% 61% 18%
95 Florida Int'l -3% 8% 22% 13% 57%
96 Oklahoma St. -3% 5% 23% 22% 49%
97 Cincinnati -3% 6% 23% 13% 57%
98 Wisconsin -3% 4% 25% 23% 48%
99 Tulsa -3% 2% 27% 25% 45%
100 Arkansas St. -3% 9% 4% 65% 22%
101 Temple -3% 2% 20% 46% 32%
102 Western Mich. -4% 1% 18% 45% 36%
103 Baylor -5% 1% 12% 59% 28%
104 Colorado -5% 12% 10% 0% 78%
105 Boise St. -5% 9% 10% 10% 71%
106 Arkansas -5% 2% 6% 65% 27%
107 UCLA -6% 2% 7% 61% 30%
108 SMU -6% 9% 3% 31% 57%
109 North Carolina St. -6% 11% 2% 24% 64%
110 Arizona St. -6% 1% 6% 65% 28%
111 Northern Ill. -6% 5% 14% 15% 67%
112 Navy -6% 0% 16% 27% 57%
113 Michigan St. -6% 2% 17% 10% 71%
114 Arizona -7% 9% 4% 9% 77%
115 Stanford -7% 4% 4% 33% 59%
116 Texas A&M -7% 2% 6% 31% 61%
117 Idaho -8% 0% 12% 22% 65%
118 Houston -8% 2% 10% 4% 83%
119 Air Force -8% 2% 5% 26% 68%
120 Syracuse -9% 1% 6% 12% 80%

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