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Thursday, May 2, 2013

Statistical Review: California #87

Cal did a lot of things poorly in 2012: 83 penalty yards/game, 3.6% INTs/pass, 2.8% fumbles/play, 11.2% sacks/pass, 18.6% TFL/run, 4.8 plays/possession. In case you're wondering, each of those is among the worst nationally. Offensively, they did one thing well, 4.9 yards per carry, but those yards translated into a no better than average EPA/rush (EPA converts a play's impact into points). The simplest explanation for this disparity in yards/rush and EPA/rush is that Cal's running game failed to convert in crucial situations, so the yards didn't translate into points. This is consistent with the poor red zone performance and high fumble rate.

Defensively, no team in the country was worst at getting stops on third down than California. This, as you might imaging, makes winning tough.

In short, Cal in 2012 was a classic case of a poorly coached football team (but that doesn't necessarily mean that getting a new coach will translate into more wins).

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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