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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Statistical Review: SMU #69

I don't track opponent field goal percentage. I generally assume that any notable performance in this area would be little more than luck. In the case of SMU, it seems there might be more at play. Margus Hunt blocked 17 kicks in his time at SMU and, like any good shot-blocking center, undoubtedly altered others. But my hunch to ignore the stat seems to be valid. SMU is barely in the top quarter nationally in opponent field goal percentage, SMU opponents missed only six field goals all season. If opponents had missed field goals against SMU at the national average, they'd have made only 1.5 more field goals all season. That's negligible.

Good field goal defense was worth about 4.5 points, but turnovers by the defense were worth 127.  No team was better in that category. Oregon and Kent State forced more turnovers, but SMU's were more timely/valuable.

The SMU run game is something of a mystery. It is average in terms of yards per carry, and SMU runners are among the top 25 most likely to get caught in the backfield, but the expected points added per run is high - not elite, but very, very good. Zach Line has an unspectacular conversion rate and SMU faired poorly in the red zone. While I need to investigate further, my best lead right now is that SMU averaged almost 7 yards per carry on third down and over 10 yards on 16 attempts on 3rd and 7-9.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.



1 comment:

  1. Articles that provide new knowledge for me, very interesting to read. Waiting for more.

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