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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Most Accurate Returning QBs from 2009

The Adjusted+ is a complete measure of quarterback accuracy. It starts with a quarterbacks completion% and adjusts that percentage based on the strength of schedule and the yards per catch. For example, in 2009 Ryan Mallet of Arkansas only completed 55.8% of his passes, ranking him 130th of qualified passers (48+ passes). But he averaged 16 yards per catch and faced the 8th toughest pass defense, so his Adjusted+ comes out at 68.6%, ranking him 9th of qualified passers.

Today, we are looking at the most accurate passers from 2009 that are returning in 2010. All five were on the bench at the start of 2009, and two will be on the bench at the start of 2010.

1) Zach Collaros, Cincinnati (81.8) - No Brian Kelly and no Mardy Gilyard, and no Tony Pike. The Big East Championship swings on whether Collaros was a system quarterback surrounded by great talent, or a real talent himself.

2) Steven Sheffield, Texas Tech (77.6) - I can't help but think of the Chris Simms/Major Applewhite debate at Texas in 2001. If that's the case, expect Sheffield to eventually take over the starting spot from Taylor Potts. Like Collaros, it will be interesting to see how much was Sheffield and how much was the system.

3) Brian Reader, Idaho (72.3) - Reader stepped into a tough situation last season and showed no fear. He averaged 17 yards per catch (4th among qualified passers). He completed 65% of his passes if you count those caught by the other team, too. He should clean up his act when needed this season and provide solid support to Enderle.

4) John Brantley, Florida (71.3) - The Brantley era begins, and I think it will be a rougher go. Brantley is unique on this list because he is not more mobile than the quarterback he subbed in for, and when defenses aren't preparing for Tebow, Brantley will be less effective.

5) Kyle Padron, SMU (69.7) - Padron stepped in half way through the season and not only won the starting job, but chased the loser out of town. He'll get tested in 2010 - SMU gets a Tuberville-coached Texas Tech and TCU in September. How did the rest of Texas let June Jones bring in a Southlake qb?

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