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Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Statistical Review: Ole Miss #46

On offense, Ole Miss did those things that a team must do to score points . . . and little more. They converted 43.6% of the 3rd and 4th down attempts, and were 12th best nationally on 3rd downs when we adjust for the defense and the distance needed for a first down. They got 25+ yards on 8.1% of pass attempts, and scored 5.4 points per possession in the red zone. They only missed efficiency perfection by turning the ball over on 16% of possessions.

But don't be confused into thinking Ole Miss was very good on offense. They were somewhere between average and good on a per play basis and scored only 2.23 points per possession despite their success in the red zone and on third downs.

The defense was very good but not elite. Their opponent-adjusted EPA per rush was 12th best in the country, and they were 3rd best nationally by sacks on passing downs. This allowed them to keep opponents' drives fairly short - 5.5 plays per possession - ideal for their up-tempo style on offense.

Ole Miss did a really good job of getting after the quarterback in 2012, and in 2013 they'll have another Nkemdiche, supposedly a better Nkemdiche, to help with that. Quarterback Bo Wallace is coming off surgery, but he'll have all the major pieces back on offense in 2013. Ole Miss was close to an A&M-style breakout in 2012; they could/should have won games against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and LSU. They get another shot in 2013 against another scheduling gauntlet.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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