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Saturday, July 27, 2013

Statistical Review: Cincinnati #27

Cincinnati wasn't a great offense in 2012, but they did one thing better than all but a few teams in college football: they picked up yards in big chunks. They were one of five teams that picked up 25 or more yards on more than 10% of pass plays (Alabama was another). Both quarterbacks got big plays at high rates, but Kay was particularly effective. He led all quarterbacks with 25+ yards on 12.2% of passes. They also managed an explosive play on about 3% of run plays, good enough to be in the top 25 in that category. After that, they were in the top 40 in almost every major offensive category, but rarely in the top 25. Most importantly, they were 33rd with 2.5 points per possession.

The defense was also well above average but not great across the board, except they were very good in the red zone (3.73 points per, good for 5th nationally, but average on 3rd downs) and racked up more than 90 points from turnovers.

Cincinnati will play some games. They'll win some. They'll lose others.

What impact will Tommy Tubberville have, on offense specifically? At Tech in 2012, they threw the ball 60% of the time, completed 70% of those, and averaged 11 yards per completion. At Cincinnati, they ran 57% of the time, completed 57% of their pass attempts and averaged almost 15 yards per completion. That may look like a sea change is coming, but Tubberville and his staff are not complete morons. As they did in Tech, they will utilize the talent on the roster - a host of waterbug receivers and two senior quarterbacks.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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