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Friday, July 12, 2013

Statistical Review: UCF #38

UCF was resourceful on offense. They finished in the top 25 in points and effective points per possession (EP3). The didn't turn the ball over very often, were good in the red zone, were just outside the top 10 in 3rd down conversions, and they were penalized just 36 yards per game. They were most successful running the ball with an EPA per rush of .18, good enough for 10th and just ahead of Georgia Tech and Kansas State. Latavius Murray was particularly effective, finishing 18th in EPA among all running backs with 53, and Bortles added another 39 with his legs.

The UCF defense was downright average, except they were particularly good at preventing big plays, particularly in the passing game - opponents managed only 25+ yards on 3% of pass plays.

With Latavius Murray out, UCF will turn to Storm Johnson at running back. If 2012 is any indication, Johnson won't be able to carry the load. Instead, UCF will need Bortles to take another step forward at quarterback, but that won't be enough if they suffer some regression in turnovers and penalties.

The 2012 UCF defense was overrated. Opponents averaged only 22 points per game but did that on 11 possessions per game. After suffering some key losses and barring an incredible coaching job, the defense will undoubtedly take a step backwards and slip below average nationally. On the whole, the Knights could be looking at a minor step back from 2012.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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