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Friday, July 19, 2013

Statistical Review: Louisiana Tech #33

Louisiana Tech was really good on offense. Really good. They scored touchdowns on 47% of possessions, turned it over on 6.4%, reached the red zone on 49% and scored touchdowns on 75% of possessions in the red zone. They were tops in the country in points per possession averaging about 3.5, and they were second in effective points per possession - the most complete overall measure of offensive efficiency - and 6th after adjusting for schedule.

Tech was more efficient than dynamic. They were 19th and 27th in yards per pass and per rush, respectively, but 7th and 5th in EPA per play. This means they got more production out of every yard than almost every other team in the country. Cameron completed 69% of his passes and was sacked less than 2% of the time, but he also averaged only 11.5 yards per completion and completed a pass for more than 25 yards on 7.3% of attempts. A general lack of explosiveness might also explain why Louisiana Tech was only average on 3rd down. Cameron completed just 57% of passes on 3rd and long and Tech was 41st in 3rd down conversions.

The defense was consistently well below average in almost every area. They scored 141 total points in the three games they lost.

Outside of Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech was stripped clean after 2012. Cameron and Patton will get paid to play and Sonny Dykes is off to coach Cal (where he hopes to have more success at the FBS level than his Tech predecessor Derek Dooley). Kenneth is really good - 1st among running backs in EPA, 3rd after adjusting for schedule and 11th in EPA per rush - but he'll be less effective in 2013 under Skip Holtz. In 2012 Tech gave Texas A&M a run for their money. After key personnel losses, regression in turnovers, and a coaching hire that won't hit the ground running, Louisiana Tech might not need to decline bowl bids in 2013.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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