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Sunday, October 9, 2011

What is the EP3 and EP3+?

EP3 Stands for effective points per possession. Effective points are those points which do not necessarily show up on the scoreboard but do effect (thus effective) the outcome of the game. For example, you get zero points on the scoreboard for pinning an opponent deep in their own territory, but that is substantially better than turning the ball over deep in your own territory. EP3 recognizes that difference.

The real value of the EP3 is that it can break down the adage "the best offense is a good defense" (or vice versa). Because it considers the impact on field position as well as on the scoreboard (and even on the clock in the case of the EP3+), it rewards the defense for being a good offense by being a good defense, and not the offense for appearing to be a good offense because it was put in an advantageous situation by the defense (and vice versa). Because it gives credit where credit is due, it is a true measure of a team's offensive and defensive performance.

EP3+ is based on the EP3 but adjusts that value 1) for the strength of the opposition and 2) for leverage. First, the EP3+ considers how well other team's have done against a particular opponent, and rewards the team if that opponent has proven particular difficult. Second, it gives greater weight to drives that can still impact the game's final outcome. The EP3+ is calculated by adding the EP3+O (offense) and EP3+D (defense).

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