You want to know why Johnny Manziel won the Heisman and Kliff Kingsbury got the head coaching job at a Big 12 school just years after being a grad assistant? Why Texas A&M has the best offense in the country? I can tell you with two statistics what it was that set these two apart. Spoiler: It's all about play selection.
The first stat in the table below is an estimate of how often you would be right if you tried to guess what a team would do (run or pass) in a particular situation based on what they've done historically in that situation. It shouldn't surprise anyone that Air Force, Army, Navy and Georgia Tech have high scores, and Leach slides into the top 5 for the same, but opposite, reason. These teams are predictable because they run (or in Leach's case throw) the ball as often as they can. No surprise, then, that both strategies depend heavily on in-play adjustments and precise execution - they have to overcome the fact that everyone in the stadium knows, generally, what they will be trying to do.
What team is hardest to predict? That would be your Aggies of Texas A&M. And why are they so hard to predict? A lot of teams are balanced on 1st down, but the Aggies are balanced on 2nd & 3rd down. The only situation in which the Aggies run or throw the ball more than 61% of the time is 2nd and short. But that's not the important part.
The Aggies run the ball 58% of the time on 3rd & 11 or more. Now, a few other teams run the ball quite a bit on 3rd & long; Florida runs the ball 59% of the time. But Florida runs the ball on 3rd & long because they gave up on the drive and don't want to risk a turnover. Only the Aggies and three super run-heavy teams (Army, Air Force and New Mexico) run the ball more than 40% of the time on 3rd & 6-10 and 3rd & 11+. The Aggies run the ball because Manziel scampers for 30 yards on a regular basis, but they still have the equally viable option of throwing the ball in those situations. It's that particular quality that made Manziel and the Aggies so hard to stop. Kingsbury was smart enough to introduce a playbook that gave A&M options and clever enough to keep defensive coordinators on their toes in-game.
Other notable results in the table:
Georgia Tech runs the ball 80% of the time on 1st down and throws the ball 85% of the time on 3rd & long. That's weird.
Despite suffering through a revolving door of unspectacular play at quarterback, BYU threw the ball 58% of the time on 2nd & short. Only Leach and Midwestern Miami passed more.
The correlation between play selection on 3rd & long and 2nd & short is especially low; knowing whether a team likes the throw the ball in one situation tells you very little about whether they like to throw the ball in the other.
[-] About this table
Includes the
top 180 QBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 240 RBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 300 Receivers by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes
the
top 180 players by pass attempts)
| 3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
| SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
| Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
| Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
| %Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
| Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
Includes the top 240 players by carries
| YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
| CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
| %Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
| %Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
| Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
| Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
| Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
| Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
| %Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
| Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
| Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
| Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| xxxx | xxxx |
...
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
| Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
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