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Thursday, September 26, 2013

How good is Baylor?

In three games, Baylor has scored 69, 70 and 70 points for the highest points per game in the country. On the other end, they have allowed only 23 points and the second fewest points per game. Both of these numbers are a little biased by tempo: Baylor plays fast, so they have more opportunities to score in a game than most. Baylor is only 4th in points score per possession (4.11), but no one has allowed fewer points per possession than the Bears (.49).

But to say Baylor is 4th in points per possession is again misleading. Against Wofford, Baylor was up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter. Against Buffalo they had scored 56 points at the half. And in their last game against ULM Baylor was up 42-0 two minutes into the second quarter. It's hard to say a team is calling off the dogs when they are scoring 69.7 points per game, but Baylor is averaging more than 47 points in the first half.

The chart below shows points per possession, but breaks it down by drive number - points per possession in the first drive of each game, through the first two drives, etc - for the country's top scoring offenses. Essentially, early in games, through the first 10 possessions, Baylor is scoring more often than any team in the country. Combine that with the .49 points per possession and -1.63 effective points per possession allowed, and Baylor has been, hands down, the most dominant team in the country. Meanwhile, Texas allowed 550 rushing yards to a team that has lost their two other games, West Virginia lost 37-0 to Maryland and Oklahoma beat WVU 16-7. This could be Baylor's year.

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