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Sunday, October 25, 2009

The quick and dirty explanation of the EPA is that we compare a players performance on each play to the FBS average and attach a point value to their contribution.

More accurately, to calculate the EPA, we begin by attaching an expected point value to every down, distance and yard line based on the average points scored by teams in that situation. We calculate the expected points added (EPA) for every play in the college football season by subtracting the expected points pre-snap from the expected points post-snap. The NEPA is similar to the EPA but also considers the impact of changing field position on the expected points of the opponent on their next possession. The EPA and NEPA diverge the most on turnovers, especially when there is a long return off the turnover.

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