Teams kickoff just over 5 times per game on average, once to start the game and 4 more after scores. No other play in football is more dynamic in terms of the average speed of players on the field, the force of collisions, and the range of likely outcomes (i.e., the standard deviation of play point impact).
With that in mind, kickoffs seem like a leading candidate for finding home field advantage. Good kick coverage and returns require a level of insanity brought on by emotion and adrenaline, and no other play consistently gets fans on their feet and loud in the first quarter.
Turning to the numbers, home teams are .728 yards closer to the opponent's end zone after kickoffs on average (70.727 to 71.4555). With an average of just over 5 kickoffs per team per game that works out to about 3.74 yards per game. Road teams are slightly more likely to turn the ball over on kickoffs and less likely to take a kick back for a touchdown.
All together, home teams are .0327 points better per kickoff on average and .175 points better per game. Adding that to the advantage in penalties (.16) and field goals (.12), we have accounted for .455 of the 3.15 point advantage of home teams.
[-] About this table
Includes the
top 180 QBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 240 RBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 300 Receivers by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes
the
top 180 players by pass attempts)
| 3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
| SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
| Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
| Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
| %Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
| Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
Includes the top 240 players by carries
| YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
| CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
| %Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
| %Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
| Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
| Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
| Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
| Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
| %Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
| Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
| Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
| Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| xxxx | xxxx |
...
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
| Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
Scott - just wanted to drop a line and tell you how much I enjoy reading your analysis and articles. They are always thought provoking and interesting. Keep up the great work and thank you!!
ReplyDelete-Ray
Thanks
Delete