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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

How much is a punter worth?

I looked recently at the point value of kickers. Today I do the same for punters and the punting game. This is a bit less straightforward because punters don't actually score points. Essentially, we can associate a point value to field position based on how many points we can expect a team to score from there. Punts, then, have a real point value in that they change that field position. To calculate the PPOE - Punting Points over Expected - I subtract out the expected change in field position based on the league average. (Note: this is net punting yards, so I subtract return yards from the punt yardage.) While PPOE is the total value over expected for the entire season, the TPPOE is the typical point value over expected, or the typical value added on a single punt. Also in the table is the average net punt yards (NPYs) and the average yardline when the team is punting.

By these statistics, Ray Guy Award winner Ray Allen for Louisiana Tech contributed more to his team than any other punter in the country. He was worth a little under 2 points per game more than the average FBS punter. But Florida State's Shane Powell was the most efficient, adding almost half a point every time he walked on the field.

Team PVOE TPPOE NPYs Yline
1 Louisiana Tech 23.4 0.27 39.5 62.4
2 Florida St. 23.2 0.41 41.3 63.6
3 LSU 22.2 0.33 40.2 63.9
4 Idaho 20.8 0.23 40.4 70.1
5 Rice 19.5 0.24 39.9 64.5
6 North Texas 19.2 0.26 39.5 64.5
7 Bowling Green 18.9 0.33 40.9 64.8
8 Kentucky 17.6 0.22 39.6 67.8
9 Cincinnati 17.1 0.27 39.4 63.2
10 Utah 16.4 0.23 39.2 64.9
11 UTEP 15.7 0.33 40.5 66.2
12 Ole Miss 14.7 0.20 38.5 63.8
13 Auburn 14.5 0.20 38.6 62.7
14 Southern Miss. 14.4 0.25 39.0 62.8
15 Oklahoma 14.2 0.23 37.9 60.2
16 Oregon 14.1 0.29 41.1 69.0
17 Utah St. 13.5 0.23 39.1 64.9
18 UCLA 12.9 0.20 38.8 64.7
19 Western Ky. 11.8 0.18 37.9 60.9
20 Ball St. 11.4 0.17 38.4 62.7
21 Iowa 11.0 0.21 38.8 63.6
22 Vanderbilt 10.8 0.16 38.4 66.2
23 La.-Lafayette 10.7 0.13 37.4 64.1
24 Mississippi St. 10.1 0.14 38.1 64.2
25 Washington 10.1 0.19 39.7 67.2
26 Texas Tech 9.7 0.17 38.8 64.3
27 Oregon St. 9.7 0.19 38.5 63.9
28 Hawaii 9.6 0.17 38.5 65.2
29 Wisconsin 9.6 0.21 38.4 64.9
30 Colorado St. 9.1 0.16 39.1 65.8
31 Oklahoma St. 9.0 0.18 39.0 64.9
32 Ohio St. 8.8 0.12 37.5 64.6
33 California 8.0 0.15 39.0 64.6
34 Arizona St. 7.9 0.13 37.3 63.6
35 Purdue 7.0 0.10 36.9 63.2
36 Boise St. 6.9 0.15 37.6 58.4
37 Missouri 6.9 0.11 37.7 64.5
38 Nebraska 6.9 0.12 38.2 64.5
39 Southern California 6.8 0.19 37.5 60.2
40 Temple 6.8 0.14 37.6 61.5
41 Boston College 6.2 0.09 37.1 61.0
42 Ohio 6.1 0.11 36.4 59.3
43 Rutgers 6.0 0.09 36.8 62.4
44 Louisville 6.0 0.08 36.9 63.4
45 Arkansas 5.9 0.11 38.0 67.3
46 Connecticut 5.4 0.07 37.3 65.5
47 Wyoming 5.2 0.07 37.3 65.1
48 BYU 4.8 0.10 36.3 60.7
49 San Diego St. 4.8 0.08 37.0 63.0
50 Duke 4.7 0.09 36.9 61.2
51 Miami (FL) 4.3 0.09 37.8 66.0
52 Iowa St. 4.1 0.06 37.3 62.2
53 San Jose St. 4.0 0.08 37.4 62.9
54 Florida 4.0 0.07 37.6 67.5
55 Western Mich. 4.0 0.09 36.4 57.9
56 Pittsburgh 3.1 0.04 36.3 65.2
57 Arkansas St. 2.7 0.05 36.9 63.8
58 Middle Tenn. 2.4 0.04 36.6 64.3
59 Stanford 2.4 0.06 36.3 60.4
60 Colorado 1.9 0.02 37.7 67.2
61 UAB 1.5 0.03 36.5 63.9
62 Eastern Mich. 1.3 0.02 35.9 62.7
63 Georgia 1.3 0.02 36.0 66.0
64 Michigan St. 0.3 0.01 35.2 59.2
65 TCU 0.3 0.01 35.5 62.3
66 Clemson -0.1 0.00 35.8 61.4
67 Arizona -0.1 0.00 35.8 63.3
68 Texas St. -0.1 0.00 36.8 64.2
69 Maryland -0.2 0.00 36.4 63.8
70 Alabama -0.2 -0.01 36.4 62.4
71 Penn St. -1.1 -0.01 35.5 61.0
72 Air Force -1.4 -0.04 36.0 67.3
73 Troy -1.4 -0.02 35.4 64.5
74 Northwestern -1.8 -0.03 35.2 64.7
75 Texas A&M -1.8 -0.03 34.7 58.7
76 Georgia Tech -1.9 -0.05 36.8 68.2
77 Navy -2.5 -0.07 35.8 65.4
78 Marshall -2.7 -0.04 36.2 64.9
79 West Virginia -2.8 -0.05 35.4 65.1
80 Fresno St. -3.3 -0.05 35.4 63.2
81 Army -3.4 -0.09 34.5 63.9
82 Washington St. -3.5 -0.06 35.6 63.4
83 Houston -3.5 -0.07 35.3 62.5
84 Kansas St. -3.8 -0.05 35.8 65.9
85 Notre Dame -3.8 -0.07 34.3 60.3
86 Kansas -4.4 -0.07 36.1 67.8
87 Northern Ill. -4.5 -0.07 35.0 63.5
88 Nevada -5.4 -0.09 34.5 65.4
89 North Carolina St. -5.5 -0.08 35.1 63.5
90 South Fla. -5.8 -0.09 34.1 62.4
91 Illinois -5.8 -0.08 35.2 64.7
92 UCF -5.9 -0.14 32.9 59.6
93 Wake Forest -6.2 -0.09 35.3 67.1
94 Baylor -6.7 -0.21 32.6 63.3
95 Tulsa -6.9 -0.11 35.3 68.4
96 Syracuse -6.9 -0.11 35.0 66.1
97 SMU -7.0 -0.12 34.1 65.1
98 FIU -7.9 -0.11 34.0 62.9
99 Buffalo -8.3 -0.12 34.8 64.6
100 Virginia Tech -8.9 -0.15 33.5 64.2
101 North Carolina -8.9 -0.14 34.3 65.3
102 Indiana -9.1 -0.13 35.4 69.0
103 Michigan -9.3 -0.20 33.8 67.8
104 Virginia -9.3 -0.14 33.5 62.9
105 Texas -9.8 -0.15 35.0 67.3
106 South Carolina -10.1 -0.19 34.3 67.4
107 Tulane -10.2 -0.13 35.0 66.5
108 Central Mich. -11.1 -0.17 34.3 65.4
109 UNLV -11.8 -0.15 34.9 67.9
110 Memphis -12.0 -0.12 35.2 67.6
111 Toledo -12.5 -0.20 32.4 61.8
112 Miami (OH) -13.9 -0.20 32.5 63.6
113 Akron -14.1 -0.17 34.7 68.5
114 Tennessee -14.2 -0.25 33.3 68.3
115 Minnesota -14.6 -0.27 33.3 64.3
116 New Mexico St. -17.8 -0.23 33.0 66.2
117 Fla. Atlantic -18.3 -0.23 33.6 68.5
118 UTSA -18.3 -0.39 30.1 62.1
119 Kent St. -20.2 -0.24 32.7 65.3
120 New Mexico -21.5 -0.28 32.8 67.8
121 East Carolina -23.4 -0.45 30.0 65.1
122 La.-Monroe -26.0 -0.38 31.4 66.2

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