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Thursday, August 9, 2012

What is a kickoff worth?


I don't want to spend much time on the methodology. The logic is the same as in the last two posts: field position has a point value, and special teams affect that field position. 

By this measure, the Oklahoma State kick coverage added the most point value for its team. This is a bit skewed because Oklahoma State scored a million points and so was kicking off more than most. Boise State was a close second in Kickoff Points over Expected (KOPOE) and was first in typical points over expected (TPOE). Michigan also stands out in the top 10. The Wolverines did not excel in kick coverage in terms of field position, but they got the ball back on 5% of kickoffs. The impact of a turnover on a kickoff varies by where the turnover happens, but it typically is worth more than 5 points. 

Team KOPOE TPOE Yline TO
1 Oklahoma St. 43.7 0.38 75.3 1.72%
2 Boise St. 42.8 0.43 77.5 1.01%
3 Western Michigan 34.9 0.39 77.1 1.12%
4 Arkansas 32.4 0.34 75.9 1.06%
5 Florida St. 30.5 0.36 77.0 0.00%
6 Temple 30.4 0.39 77.5 0.00%
7 Michigan 26.6 0.33 71.0 5.00%
8 Auburn 26.3 0.40 77.7 0.00%
9 Cincinnati 25.4 0.30 73.2 2.33%
10 Miami (FL) 23.6 0.37 75.4 1.59%
11 LSU 23.5 0.25 73.3 2.11%
12 Texas A&M 21.8 0.22 75.3 0.00%
13 Southern Miss. 20.7 0.21 71.8 3.96%
14 Virginia Tech 19.9 0.26 75.8 0.00%
15 TCU 19.7 0.21 73.9 1.04%
16 Utah 19.4 0.29 76.1 1.47%
17 Nebraska 18.5 0.24 73.4 1.30%
18 UTSA 18.2 0.35 76.8 0.00%
19 Vanderbilt 17.9 0.27 74.9 1.49%
20 Georgia 17.0 0.19 73.9 2.25%
21 Oregon 16.7 0.15 73.2 0.88%
22 Oregon St. 16.2 0.29 73.2 3.64%
23 Tulsa 16.0 0.19 75.7 0.00%
24 Kentucky 15.5 0.34 75.7 2.22%
25 Mississippi St. 15.3 0.23 74.2 1.52%
26 BYU 15.2 0.20 74.9 0.00%
27 San Diego St. 14.8 0.21 75.1 0.00%
28 UCF 14.4 0.22 74.2 1.54%
29 Houston 12.6 0.10 73.7 0.00%
30 Clemson 12.3 0.13 73.4 1.08%
31 SMU 11.7 0.18 72.4 1.54%
32 Duke 11.5 0.22 75.1 0.00%
33 Oklahoma 11.4 0.12 73.6 1.02%
34 Rice 11.0 0.18 69.8 4.92%
35 Eastern Mich. 9.8 0.17 72.8 1.72%
36 Mississippi 9.4 0.21 75.2 0.00%
37 Kansas St. 8.9 0.12 72.2 1.30%
38 Florida 8.3 0.11 73.8 0.00%
39 Troy 7.6 0.13 74.0 0.00%
40 Iowa St. 7.5 0.13 74.1 0.00%
41 Texas 7.1 0.10 73.1 1.39%
42 Louisiana Tech 6.8 0.09 72.2 1.28%
43 Michigan St. 6.7 0.08 72.8 1.27%
44 Army 6.7 0.12 73.9 0.00%
45 Missouri 6.4 0.08 71.6 1.25%
46 Boston College 6.3 0.13 75.5 0.00%
47 San Jose St. 6.1 0.09 69.8 3.03%
48 Virginia 5.5 0.09 71.1 1.61%
49 Notre Dame 5.5 0.08 71.5 1.37%
50 Arizona St. 5.1 0.06 71.2 2.44%
51 Baylor 4.7 0.05 69.3 3.23%
52 Arkansas St. 4.6 0.05 73.1 0.00%
53 UTEP 4.5 0.07 74.2 0.00%
54 Minnesota 3.8 0.08 73.4 0.00%
55 East Carolina 3.6 0.06 72.4 1.61%
56 Pittsburgh 3.3 0.05 71.2 1.41%
57 Purdue 2.9 0.04 73.8 0.00%
58 USC 2.5 0.03 74.7 0.00%
59 Tennessee 2.3 0.05 73.0 0.00%
60 Wake Forest 2.1 0.03 72.7 0.00%
61 Ohio St. 1.4 0.02 73.6 0.00%
62 Ohio 1.4 0.02 72.3 1.15%
63 Penn St. 1.4 0.02 72.7 0.00%
64 Stanford 0.9 0.01 71.5 1.00%
65 Miami (OH) 0.8 0.02 72.5 0.00%
66 Washington -0.6 -0.01 69.7 2.50%
67 Colorado St. -0.6 -0.01 73.5 0.00%
68 Arizona -0.6 -0.01 72.2 0.00%
69 UCLA -0.8 -0.01 72.1 0.00%
70 Iowa -0.8 -0.01 70.7 1.43%
71 Memphis -1.0 -0.02 71.9 0.00%
72 Ball St. -1.4 -0.02 72.0 0.00%
73 Northwestern -1.6 -0.02 70.5 1.45%
74 Connecticut -1.9 -0.03 72.9 0.00%
75 South Florida -2.0 -0.03 71.9 1.41%
76 Wisconsin -2.2 -0.02 70.4 2.02%
77 Utah St. -2.4 -0.03 72.1 1.32%
78 Central Michigan -2.8 -0.05 69.9 1.69%
79 Texas Tech -3.3 -0.04 72.7 0.00%
80 Louisville -3.5 -0.06 71.4 0.00%
81 Navy -4.4 -0.07 69.7 1.49%
82 Georgia Tech -5.2 -0.07 71.5 0.00%
83 North Texas -6.2 -0.10 72.0 0.00%
84 South Carolina -6.5 -0.09 70.8 1.41%
85 Western Kentucky -7.3 -0.15 68.5 2.00%
86 Texas St. -7.5 -0.12 71.8 0.00%
87 Florida Atlantic -8.1 -0.22 67.5 2.78%
88 Air Force -8.1 -0.10 72.6 0.00%
89 Rutgers -8.1 -0.12 70.8 0.00%
90 California -8.3 -0.11 70.9 0.00%
91 Kent St. -8.4 -0.17 71.3 0.00%
92 Alabama -9.2 -0.10 72.5 0.00%
93 Illinois -9.3 -0.15 71.4 0.00%
94 Bowling Green -9.5 -0.15 68.2 1.59%
95 Buffalo -9.5 -0.17 65.5 3.64%
96 UNLV -9.7 -0.21 68.6 2.17%
97 Wyoming -9.8 -0.15 66.0 3.13%
98 North Carolina -10.0 -0.15 70.3 0.00%
99 Colorado -11.6 -0.21 67.6 1.82%
100 FIU -13.4 -0.18 70.8 0.00%
101 Indiana -14.0 -0.25 68.8 0.00%
102 Hawaii -15.4 -0.20 66.4 2.56%
103 New Mexico -15.8 -0.45 67.9 0.00%
104 Nevada -16.1 -0.20 69.4 1.25%
105 Syracuse -17.7 -0.31 68.2 0.00%
106 Kansas -18.1 -0.34 69.0 0.00%
107 Idaho -18.2 -0.36 67.2 1.96%
108 Fresno St. -18.3 -0.25 70.8 0.00%
109 North Carolina St. -19.0 -0.26 68.9 0.00%
110 Tulane -19.0 -0.33 69.0 0.00%
111 Marshall -19.9 -0.33 66.6 1.67%
112 New Mexico St. -20.1 -0.32 67.3 1.59%
113 Maryland -20.6 -0.36 66.4 1.72%
114 Washington St. -21.3 -0.30 68.7 2.86%
115 West Virginia -23.9 -0.27 69.0 1.12%
116 Toledo -25.7 -0.27 68.8 2.08%
117 Middle Tenn. -27.5 -0.51 66.6 0.00%
118 La.-Monroe -28.3 -0.50 64.4 1.75%
119 Akron -31.3 -0.73 62.4 0.00%
120 Northern Ill. -31.8 -0.32 68.0 0.00%
121 UAB -32.7 -0.60 64.4 0.00%
122 La.-Lafayette -38.2 -0.48 65.8 0.00%

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