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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Statistical Review: San Diego State #51

San Diego State ran off 2 min 40 sec per possession (14th best nationally), scored 5.6 points per possession in the red zone (9th best) and forced turnovers worth 95.4 points (9th best nationally). The last two helped the nation's 78th best offense by EPA per pass score 2.5 points per possession (31st best in the country). The long average time of possession is a completely meaningless stat, except it kept San Diego State scores low by reducing the number of possessions per team (12.4 possessions per game).

The Aztecs were 6th worst in the country in keeping their quarterback upright. They allowed sacks on 10.2% of pass attempts. To make matters worse, they didn't accompany this with high yards per completion - a high sack rate means the quarterback is holding the ball too long but often in exchange for some big plays downfield. The reason a sack rate is high with good line play is that the quarterback is a legitimate threat to scramble; A&M's sack rate was a "weakness" of the offense, especially considering the quality of the offensive line and Manziel's escapability, because Manziel risked sacks for the opportunity to break a long run. But Katz and Dingwell averaged 4.2 and 2.4 yard per carry, not exactly Manziel, Mariota or Lynch.

The story changes when we split Katz and Dingwell. Katz had a 6 point lead on Dingwell in sacks per pass (14% to 8%, respectively); Katz was sacked only slightly less often than sack specialists Jeff Driskel and Kiehl Frazier (Frazier was sacked twice for every seven completions!). And Katz gained 25+ yards on 10.4% of pass attempts, better than all but 12 FBS quarterbacks. Only Tajh Boyd, AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray attempted more passes and gained 25 or more yards at a higher rate.
The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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