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[+] Team Summaries

Thursday, September 17, 2009

An explanation of the Breakdown

The Breakdown is organized in five panes. The first pane offers a basic summary of the performance of the two teams being compared (explanations of the trend-O-meter, Hybrid (2), and cRPI) with national rankings in parentheses. Team ratings and statistical predictions are less reliable before the fifth week of the season.

The second panel provides more detailed information on the team's performance. The unit, pass, and rush ratings are strength-of-schedule adjusted. The bar graphs offer a summary of offensive and defensive match-ups. The portion below zero on each bar is representative of the opposing teams defensive strength in that area. The portion above the bar in the team's color is the predicted yards per run or pass for that team. The gray portion is what the team gains on average. In the title of the graph is percent of plays that the team runs or passes. This information can be used to gauge potential match-up problems. For example, in the case below, USC's relative strength against the run was a match-up advantage for the Trojans-who, then absolutely clobbered Jahvid Best.

Below this panel is a link to another panel with more team statistics.

Pane three is a comparison of the two teams since 1980 (explanations of the Hybrid and cRPI). In this case, the hybrid ratings across seasons are standardized to 1.

Explanation of maps. In the example below, USC is placed relative to Oregon, Eastern Washington, Maryland and Minnesota, Cal's previous opponents. Of those, on offense USC is stylistically most similar to Oregon who score 14 more points that was expected-potentially because Oregon matched up well against the Bears. Because USC is most similar to Oregon (of Cal's previous opponents) and Oregon did exceptionally well, we might expect USC to also have an exceptionally good night-and they did.

Finally, pane 5 summarizes this information to make picks. The Matrix prediction uses performance and match-up data to predict a score and the odds that each team will win. This panel also gives the results of the last six meetings between the teams.

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