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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Blackwell's EPA, week 3 RBs

Through the first three weeks, De'Anthony Thomas leads all running backs by expected points added (and by a healthy margin). Thomas has helped his team score 33.4 more points and outscore their opponents by 36.3 more points than would have the typical running back given his opportunities. That comes out to 11 and 12 points per game. More remarkable, though, is his production per play. Thomas adds almost a point and half every time he is involved in a play. Teammate Kenjon Barner just misses the top 50 at #51. Despite significantly more touches, Barner's EPA is only 6.2.

Tulsa has two backs in the top 10 with almost identical per play production. Alabama has only one back in the top 50, and it's not Eddie Lacy. Instead, it is freshman TJ Yeldon at #16 (and I just barely missed him on my fantasy team). And where, you might be wondering, are Heisman hopefuls Marcus Lattimore? Montee Ball? Knile Davis? Eddie Lacy? All four are in the negative. Montee Ball has cost his team a full touchdown with his lack of production and Knile Davis is moving quickly towards two touchdowns worth of ineffectiveness.

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