Lindy's Five Essential Websites (Non-Major Media) for 2013
[+] Team Summaries

Friday, September 28, 2012

Smart 3rd Down Efficiency

3rd down efficiency measures how often a team converts on third down. The problem with this metric is that it is influenced more by how a team does on 1st and 2nd down to set up 3rd down than how they actually do on 3rd down. Smart 3rd down efficiency adjusts the results for the distance needed to gain a 1st down. A positive number means the team converts more 3rd downs than would have the average team in those situations. A negative value means the opposite, that the average team would have been better in those same situations.

Offensively, the top team in the nation on 3rd down has been Purdue. The Boilermakers have converted 21% more 3rd downs than average. Oregon St has had the nation's best 3rd down defense, allowing 19% fewer conversions.

The best team overall on 3rd down has been Texas A&M. Defensively, the Aggies have been among the best at getting to the quarterback for the last few years. This year they have also managed to cover receivers downfield, so their smart defensive 3rd down efficiency has jumped from 83rd to 3rd. On the other end, Arkansas has fallen from 6th to 101st (see "What's wrong with Arkansas?"). This difference in 3rd down efficiency  can largely explain the 13.5 point line this weekend for the Texas A&M/Arkansas game.

No comments:

Post a Comment