Lindy's Five Essential Websites (Non-Major Media) for 2013
[+] Team Summaries

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

CFBTN 101: First down on 3 carries

Two running backs average 5 yards per carry. One gets exactly 5 yards per carry. The second gets 25 yards every 5th carry and 0 on the rest. The first running back could carry his team to a touchdown on every possession while the second would never score unless they were gifted with great field position.

First down on 3 carries measures the probability that a back would get 10 yards on 3 carries (and keep a drive going) based on an estimated distribution of their yards per carry. Of qualified backs (at least 36 carries) Johnathan Franklin is still leading the pack. FIU's Kedrick Rhodes is a surprise #2, with only 4.9 yards per carry, but a real life example of the situation described above. Rhodes has a 92% of getting at least 2 yards when he gets the ball but only a 7.4% chance of getting 10 yards. Instead, he consistently gets around 4 or 5. For more First down on 3 carries results go to Individual: Stats above, click on Qual under Runners, and sort by First down on 3 carries.

No comments:

Post a Comment