And I can use that.
I started with NFL win total over/unders. Using those numbers and team schedules, I estimated team power rankings (T), strength of schedule (O) and game-by-game probabilities. With those game-by-game probabilites, I calculated playoff (P=Playoff, WC=wild card) and division title probabilities. In short, I used 32 numbers generated by a sports gambling market to map out the NFL season.
[The power rankings are scaled to point margins, so to estimate an average margin of victory subtract O from T and add or subtract 3 or 3.5 points for home field advantage.]
* On that note, these specific win totals add up to 262, which is remarkable since there are only 256 games . I assume that, because most fans are irrationally optimistic about their own team and they are also more likely to place a bet on their team, win totals are impossibly optimistic as well.