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Thursday, November 1, 2012

Quarterback EPAs, Week 9: Collin Klein and a bunch of mortals

In my week 9 preview last week, I wrote about 5 games and what EPA told us might happen in each.  I didn't predict each game precisely, but I said Braxton Miller would be the difference against Penn St, and he was.  I said Mississippi State likely wouldn't get the miracle effort needed to beat Bama, and they didn't.  I said Georgia had a puncher's chance against Florida due to their running backs and Florida's tendency to shoot themselves in the foot on offense, and that's precisely why Georgia won.  I said Notre Dame, if their defense could keep things close, could keep things mixed up enough on offense to win, and that happened.  I brag about what I got right because I must point out that I also said something very, very foolish:

 It could be a lean day for Collin Klein.

My bad.  Collin Klein didn't only not have a lean day, he feasted like a king, all the way to 19 EPA against one of the nation's best defenses - the same defense that rendered Geno Smith helpless.  He takes a 10 point lead in our EPA standings and firmly takes hold of the Heisman race with 109.19 EPA.

#2 is now Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois (99.81 EPA), who has over 1900 passing yards, 1100 rushing yards, 32 TD, and only 3 interceptions.  Little known fact - Jordan Lynch is the only player in the nation controlled by a kid on his Playstation.

#3 is the best QB in the SEC, Johnny Manziel (94.67 EPA).  As a freshman in the SEC, Johnny Football has over 2200 pass yards, almost 800 rushing yards, 29 TD and only 6 turnovers.  Also, he's a freshman.  So, good luck with that for the next 2 or 3 years, SEC West.

The top 10 also includes names from past updates, like Seth Doege, Cody Fajardo, Nick Florence, Tahj Boyd, Rakeem Cato, and Matt Barkley.  Yes, Barkley is back in the top 10, despite the loss to Arizona, which was anyone's fault but his own.  Heisman contender Braxton Miller ranks 19th; he's very good, but I'm not sure he's done enough at this point to deserve the chance to clap for Collin Klein in person.

At the bottom?  Jordan Webb (-70.99) gives Colorado the wonderful distinction of having the least productive QB as well as the least productive running back.  Kansas'  Dayne Crist is next from the bottom, and I can only hope Charlie Weis will try to silence me for mentioning it.  Idaho's Dominique Blackman has been so terrible he might have gotten his coach fired, and Auburn's Kiehl Frazier seems hell-bent on the same result.  Now, these guys only get to compete for worst QB in American because Missouri has split time between James Franklin (-44.51) and Corbin Berkstresser (-48.41).  Not even Webb is within 20 points of their collective awfulness.

The strangest names to see near the bottom?  Hawaii's Sean Schroeder and SMU's Garrett Gilbert.  I expect more from Norm Chow and June Jones quarterbacks.

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