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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

What if we had a tournament?

Using the BCS standings, I simulated standard four and eight team tournaments (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, etc.). In each column is the percent chance that the team would win in that round.

 The four team tournament essentially reflects reality. Alabama and Georgia are playing a semi-final in the SEC championship game. Notre Dame has a play-in game against USC. Florida needs a little help in real life, but a win over Florida State will put them in a good position if Notre Dame or Alabama and Georgia stumble. Again, as in real life, Alabama would have the best odds in a tournament.

In the eight team variant, Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State would have the best chances of getting through round 1, and Alabama and Oregon each have about a 50% chance of getting to the title game.




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