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Monday, November 5, 2012

Week 10's Best Offensive Performances

The EP3, or effective points per possession, measure the average number of "effective" points earned each drive during a game. Effective points consider field position as well as actual points. The EP3+ is the team's average performance over the course of the season adjusted for the opposition. The EP3+D is the defensive score while the EP3+O is for the offense. The Perf-O begins with the single-game EP3 and adjusts for the opponent's EP3+D. The Perf-D begins with the opponent's EP3 and adjusts it for the opponent's EP3+O.

Johnny Football was two-upped this weekend. Not only was the Aggie's 690 yard performance against Mississippi State only good for 2nd in the Perf-O rankings, Oregon had the audacity to displace Texas A&M's win against Auburn as the best single-game offensive performance of the season. (I have rejigged the Perf formula this week, so this week's results are comparable to posted past results.) I think Oregon heard I was saying some disparaging things about them last week and got upset. USC, while losers on the day can be proud to know that, offensively, they were better than all but two teams on Saturday. Unfortunately, one of those two teams was their opponent. 

LSU comes in 23th despite a measly 0.04 EP3. Because an EP3 of 0 is average, anything above that against Alabama is pretty dang good. Pitt (vs. Notre Dame), Oklahoma State (vs. Kansas State), and San Diego State (vs. Boise State) also managed to make the top 25 with an EP3 below 0.5. San Diego State was the only of the four to pull off the win. Then, there's Alabama. The Tide had one of the lowest winning EP3s of the season, but the model concluded that both the Alabama offense and LSU defense were playing at a high level.




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