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Thursday, November 8, 2012

Week 10 NEPA rankings

You might have noticed some changes to the EPA/NEPA page.  It's more navigable than before, with more options.  Scott has added pages for individual receivers, team offense, and team defense.  This should allow more time for analysis.  Very exciting stuff.

I'll also note that we've decided to sort the leaders by Net Expected Points Added.  It's more contextual, and after 10 weeks of looking at both I feel it is a better measure of real value to the team.  It will likely have a minimal effect on the ordering of the rankings, but it's worth pointing out.

Ok, on to the leaderboards:


Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch continues to devastate defenses, and it has finally landed him the #1 spot in our rankings at 169.8.  Are we really appreciating what Lynch is doing?  In 10 games this year, he has 2175 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 19 TD passes, and just 3 interceptions.  Oh yeah, and he happens to lead the nation in rushing yards.  With 1342 yards and 16 TD, Lynch has 3517 yards and 35 TD to just 3 INT this year.  His value is off the charts, and it's showing up in the standings - Northern Illinois is 9-1, and not a single conference foe has stayed within 10 points of the Huskies this year.  Lynch is clearly the most valuable player in the MAC.  Our metrics suggest he's the most valuable player in the country.

After Lynch, we have the usual suspects, quarterbacks who regularly draw praise in this webspace.  Guys like Collin Klein (#3 - 141.4 NEPA), Johnny Manziel (#4 - 139.8), Seth Doege (#6 - 129.1), and Geno Smith (#12 - 111.1).  Nick Florence of Baylor (#2 - 147.2) has been near the top all year.  Much like the Bears, he's always close but never leading.  Clemson's Tajh Boyd (#5 - 132.1) also has quietly climbed back into prominence.

Your new bottom three?  Sean Schroeder, Jordan Webb, and Dayne Crist.  The common bond?  All three are at their 2nd stop.  Schroeder played at Duke before Hawaii, Webb at Kansas before Colorado, and Crist simply goes wherever he has a decided schematic advantage.

Running Backs

So, Kenjon Barner had a pretty good week.  The Senior jumped into the thick of the Heisman race with 321 yards and 5 TD against the USC Trojans.  He also jumps into the lead for our NEPA rankings, with 82.6 points added.  Barner's teammate, De'Anthony Thomas, ranks 3rd with 53.3.  In short, those Ducks can fly.

I've been extolling the virtues of 8-1 Kent State's Dri Archer for a few weeks now, so it was pleasing to see him named "the best player you might not have heard of" this weekend on a certain major network.  It's hard to disagree (assuming you've heard of Jordan Lynch).  Archer has 13 TD, 1225 yards from scrimmage, and 9.3 yards per carry, best in the country.

Other names near the top include UCLA's Johnathan Franklin and UNC's Giovanni Bernard.


Baylor WR Terrance Williams leads the country with 80.7 NEPA receiving.  Over 25% of that total came in his grand performance against West Virginia.  USC's Marquise Lee is next, but mostly because Matt Barkley throws to him over and over and over again.  I don't mean to suggest that's not a worthy strategy - it kept them in the game against Arizona and Oregon, after all.  I'm just pointing out that Lee has an advantage with the raw total thanks to more total plays.  The next three names on the list all outpace Williams & Lee in points per touch: Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins, WVU's Stedman Bailey, and San Jose State's Noel Grigsby round out our top 5, with each worth over .7 points per passing play.

However, if you want sheer play-for-play production, look no further than Louisville's DeVante Parker.  Parker has 38.5 NEPA this year.  On 33 plays.  That's 1.1 NEPA every time he touches the football.  He has achieved this via a high catch rate, a ridiculous 23 yards per catch, and 5 TDs. 

Brent Blackwell compiles the EPA rankings for  Follow Brent on Twitter by mashing the pretty button below.

1 comment:

  1. "Much like the Bears, he's always close but never leading." I laughed so hard when I read that I started to tear up. Unbiased moment: I do love when people rip on Baylor.