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Saturday, October 6, 2012

CFBTN vs. Vegas: Week 6 picks

There are five games this week where the model and Vegas disagree by more than a touchdown. I've already talked about LSU and Florida, and I think the model has the right idea on this one. This is not 2011's LSU team, but the public has not yet accepted what the underlying statistics are screaming. I'm not sure if the model likes USC less or Utah more than most others (probably a little of both). Utah will come in with the same essential game plan as Stanford, and that worked pretty well, but it is still hard to defend the model's pick after last week. The model LOVES Texas Tech, and playing in Lubbock with the better quaterback and better defense (according to the underlying statistics), what's not to love. Twelve points is probably the biggest spread between the model and Vegas we will see the rest of the season. 

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