Lindy's Five Essential Websites (Non-Major Media) for 2013
[+] Team Summaries

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Why I hate lazy, narrative-based analysis, fun with the transitive property, and Browning goes the distance, again

West Virginia scores a ton of points and wins less than convincingly against Texas and Baylor. I tried to warn the world that Baylor could make any offense look proficient and that Texas couldn't tackle a toddler, but the world refused to listen. I yelled it from the mountaintops that Kansas State has scored more points per possession than West Virginia and actually has a much better offense, but my analysis fell on deaf ears. You decided West Virginia was the unstoppable force after one game, a game in which they gave up 63 points. You refused to see the light when Tech made Geno Smith look silly. The predominant opinion on Kansas State was shaped by the 2011 season and hasn't changed despite mounting evidence that the 2012 team is a different beast. This is what happens when people refuse to look at the data, look at the real evidence: they look stupid.

Speaking of stupid, anyone that looks at the LSU/A&M game as confirmation of their silly notions about the superior SEC style of play and the superiority of SEC athletes is hopelessly dense. A&M lost the game despite outgaining LSU because they turned it over five times, missed two field goals and an extra point. I don't know if any team has ever won a college football game with that resume. Then I hear that this game is a classic example of how LSU plays - getting short fields by forcing turnovers and big special team plays. That's just not true. LSU has needed more yards per point so far this season than Texas A&M. LSU is relatively weak at forcing turnovers, outside of the top 25 in turnovers per possession this season. But too many people are happy bathing in the preconceived notions and unsubstantiated claims to bother with facts. I am more convinced that Texas A&M is the superior team after the game than I was before.

Now that I got that out of my system, lets talk about Florida and the transitive property. Florida beats South Carolina by 33. South Carolina beats Georgia by 28. By the transitive property, Florida should beat Georgia by 61. Even if they don't, I've got to like my chances if I'm a Gator fan.

Speaking of the transitive property, Tulane beat SMU by 1 (+1), SMU beat Houston by 30 (+31), Houston lost to Louisiana Tech by 7 (+24), Louisiana Tech lost to Texas A&M by 2 (+22), and Texas A&M lost to Florida by 3 (+19) and LSU by 5 (+17). This means that Alabama will need to beat Florida by 19 and LSU by 17 or risk being worst (by the transitive property) than the worst team in college football. Speaking of Houston and SMU, Houston turned it over 9 times, including 2 interceptions each by three different quaterbacks. As a result, they lost to a terrible team by 30 (remember, A&M turned it over 5 times).

Notre Dame wins again. Notre Dame is a total fraud. They deserve to be ranked high and the accolades that come with winning, but what has Notre Dame done besides winning that is really all that impressive? Beat Michigan? Michigan State? Stanford? BYU? Purdue? These are all third or fourth tier teams and Notre Dame was one play from losing each of them. I'll be more impressed if they beat USC (2nd tier) and/or Oklahoma (1st tier). Until then, they are still frauds, but in the best possible way.

ULM beat Western Kentucky by 1 in overtime. Though not as significant on the national stage, the conference implications of the 21 point comeback and two point conversion in overtime make this a big deal for the Warhawks. This also gives ULM a second order win over another SEC team. Good for them.

No comments:

Post a Comment