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Friday, October 5, 2012

Reviewing CFBTN's picks

Each dot below represents one of the 135 games in weeks 2, 4 and 5 with Vegas lines (I am not including weeks 1 and 3 because I didn't download those lines in advance). The bottom axis is the distance between the CFBTN prediction and the real outcome, and the vertical axis is same but for the Vegas line. In general, those games that the model missed were the same games that Vegas missed; the model and Vegas are often thinking along the same lines. There is a slight tendency for Vegas to be closer when the two disagree wildly, and vice versa. On the whole, the model's performance is more than admirable considering it has never watched game film, it treats injuries as binomial outcomes - in or out - and it doesn't have a scouting report on the backup, and it doesn't know what Kyle Field is like under the lights, all things you would think would be important for picking games.

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