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[+] Team Summaries

Saturday, October 13, 2012

CFBTN vs. Vegas

Each week I compare the model's results to an average of Vegas lines because I consider these lines to be an important source of information that I can use to improve my results. I publish this chart each week so readers can see one aspect of that comparison, finding where the model and Vegas disagree. 

Interestingly, all four home teams that Vegas likes considerably more than the model were much, much better last year. LSU is the most overrated team in the country. Virginia Tech has lost three of four, adding a second and third order loss to FCS Youngstown State, and they weren't even competitive last week. Houston and Arkansas already hit rock bottom and are starting to dig their way out, but they are still really, really deep. Ironically, on the other side ULM and Rutgers share their most notable win this season, and they might still be underrated.. And I don't really care of Oklahoma State beats Kansas by 20 or 30. 

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