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Saturday, October 20, 2012

CFBTN vs. Vegas, week 8

Vegas and CFBTN are a bit at odds this week. First, the model and Vegas were 9.5 points different for Oregon and Arizona State. Turns out we were both very wrong, but the model was more wrong.
Ignoring the expected blowouts - I really don't care if Utah State beats NMSU by 40 or 32 - there are five games Saturday in which the model and Vegas have very different expectations. I've already said my bit about Kansas State. The leading theory in favor of West Virginia is that Kansas State just won't be able to keep up with the Mountaineers on the scoreboard. Didn't we hear that last week? Kansas State has scored more points per possession this season than West Virginia against tougher competition. KANSAS STATE HAS A BETTER OFFENSE!!! Collin Klein is a better quarterback than Geno Smith, especially against quality defenses.

The model also likes Michigan by a lot. The argument in favor of Michigan is that the Michigan fundamentals are simply better than Michigan State. And Michigan State just lost to Iowa. The argument for Michigan State is that very good defenses have been able to shut Michigan down. The model is projecting Denard to get 6.3 yards per carry. If he gets over 5 then Michigan will win running away.

Finally (because I'm ignoring MWC and Sun Belt games), LSU travels to Texas A&M. This is easily the biggest game of the season for the Aggies. With a win they are legit SEC West (and therefore national title) contenders, Johnny Football can clear a spot on the shelf for a certain bronze statue, and it will really make Aggie fans and players happy. LSU, for the second week in a row, needs the win to stay in the national title hunt. Texas A&M lost by 3 to Florida in their first game with a freshman quarterback and a new coaching staff. LSU lost to that same Florida team by 8 (on the road). The real question here is if LSU actually woke up last week against South Carolina or if LSU will be the same team it was through their first 6 games. The model is betting on the latter.

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